A four-model consensus — V14 + V15 + Paperclip + market odds, stacked via logistic regression — trained on 8,500+ fights. 68.32% live on all picks (207-96 across 25 cards in 2026 — the floor, every pick included); 84.9% on high-confidence holdout (n=52); 75.6% across 2026 cards (n=90). Every number n-cited. No guesswork.
FightIQ is a data-analytics tool that publishes prediction probabilities and a verifiable track record. It is not betting advice and we do not facilitate gambling. Read the model, treat the numbers as one input into your own judgement.
Original UFC writing — main-event breakdowns, model-vs-market reads, recaps, autopsies. Updated daily. Browse all 117 →
Medic vs. Rodriguez tops 14 fights in Serbia, and two of our flagged picks come with caveats we would rather state than bury.
Friday, July 31: one LOCK in Serbia, a merged PFL and MVP, and Chimaev's return in Moscow.
The week's reported news: a promotional merger, a Moscow headliner, a Shanghai addition and a callout.
Both flagged picks landed and both misses came from the bottom of our confidence range. The method column was the weak spot.
Eight of 12 fights ended inside the distance at Etihad Arena, and the main event was the only bout to get past the third round.
A confirmed Pitbull-Choi featherweight bout and a reported Moicano-Ortega rematch stack up on the Sept. 19 Los Angeles card, while the expected Tsarukyan-Oliveira headline stays unofficial.
2025-26 holdout · real-market ROI basis (BFO closing). Every claim n-cited, strata stated. See full methodology →
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Accuracy figures are 2025-2026 holdout; TOSS-UP picks excluded. ROI figures are temporarily withdrawn — we found a pricing defect in our own backtest and pulled the numbers rather than serve them while we re-derive. What we found →
Most prediction sites give you gut feelings dressed up as analysis. We give you a machine that learns from every fight ever thrown.
8,500+ UFC fights spanning 12+ years. Striking, grappling, physical attributes, Elo ratings, historical odds — all cleaned and structured.
We don't just look at records. Proprietary features capture style matchups, momentum, aging curves, and how fighters perform under pressure.
Four algorithms compete and collaborate. A dual architecture blends market-aware and market-blind predictions to avoid overfitting.
We scan betting markets in real time. When our model disagrees with the market, we flag it. That's where the money is.
Each algorithm sees the fight differently. When they agree, we're confident. When they don't, we tell you.
Statistical foundation — finds the signal in the noise
Pattern recognition — learns complex matchup dynamics
Speed optimised — processes every angle at scale
Robustness engine — guards against overfitting
UFC Freedom 250 tonight · Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje at the White House · Pereira vs Gane co-main · 7 fights · PPV.
Every prediction comes with a confidence tier. The edge lives in LOCK and HIGH — that's where you should focus.
Full pre-fight analysis, FightIQ model predictions, and post-fight results for every UFC event in 2026.
Join the waitlist and be the first to receive model output, edge alerts, and confidence-rated picks for every UFC event.