UFC Fight Night Gamrot vs Salkilld Predictions — UFC APEX

◆ METHODOLOGY · LOCK MECHANICAL-AGREEMENT CAVEAT

Picks reflect the 4-voice consensus ensemble (V14 + V15.1 + Paperclip + market). Each fight shows pick + confidence tier. LOCK tier fires when our pick aligns with extreme market consensus (-300+ closing favorites); performance is partly real model signal, partly mechanical agreement with the market. 2026 LOCK ledger: 14-2 (n=16, 87.5%) — the flagged tier's canonical season record (source: season_record_2026.json). TOSS-UP picks excluded from accuracy claims. 71.59% consensus accuracy on n=428 / 76.21% UNANIMOUS_3 (n=307), 2025-2026 holdout, real-market basis (BFO closing).

◆ Main Card

Main Card

Main Card Heavyweight · 5 rds

Guilherme Pat

Steven Asplund

Pick Steven Asplund LOW

Guilherme Pat +277 · Steven Asplund -277

LOWSteven Asplund — low-conviction lean at Heavyweight.

FightIQ Newsroom · Fighter Bios

Guilherme Pat

1-1

Guilherme Pat carries a 1-1 UFC record into UFC Vegas: Gamrot vs. Salkilld on Saturday at the UFC APEX.

The heavyweight debuted Dec. 13, 2025, and took a unanimous decision over Allen Frye Jr. across three rounds.

He fought again April 4, 2026, and lost a majority decision to Thomas Petersen, also over three rounds.

Both of Pat's UFC appearances have been heavyweight bouts, and both went the full three rounds. He has not scored a finish in the promotion and has not been finished there.

The Petersen result was a majority decision, meaning at least one judge scored the fight even.

News (#18)

Steven Asplund

1-1

Steven Asplund enters Saturday's card at the UFC APEX with a 1-1 UFC record.

The heavyweight debuted Dec. 13, 2025, and stopped Sean Sharaf by TKO in the second round.

He returned March 14, 2026, against Vitor Petrino and lost a unanimous decision over three rounds.

Both of Asplund's UFC bouts have been heavyweight fights. He has one finish in the promotion, and his only loss there went to the scorecards.

The Petrino fight was his first UFC bout to reach the judges, and his first to go past the second round.

News (#18)

Main Event Lightweight · 3 rds

Mateusz Gamrot

Quillan Salkilld

Pick Quillan Salkilld MED

Mateusz Gamrot +135 · Quillan Salkilld -135

MEDQuillan Salkilld — medium-conviction pick at Lightweight.

FightIQ Newsroom · Fighter Bios

Mateusz Gamrot

9-4

Mateusz Gamrot headlines Saturday's card at the UFC APEX with a 9-4 record across 13 UFC fights, dating to his Oct. 17, 2020, debut.

His last five bouts, all at lightweight, have alternated. Gamrot took a unanimous decision from Rafael Dos Anjos on March 9, 2024, then dropped a split decision to Dan Hooker on Aug. 17, 2024.

He beat Ludovit Klein by unanimous decision May 31, 2025, and was submitted by Charles Oliveira in the second round Oct. 11, 2025.

Gamrot's most recent appearance came April 11, 2026, when he submitted Esteban Ribovics in the second round.

His UFC record also includes a second-round TKO of Diego Ferreira on Dec. 18, 2021. Ferreira fights on the same card Saturday.

News (#18)

Quillan Salkilld

5-0

Quillan Salkilld is 5-0 in the UFC since his Feb. 8, 2025, debut, when he stopped Anshul Jubli by TKO in the first round.

Four of the five wins came by finish inside one round. Salkilld beat Yanal Ashmouz by unanimous decision June 7, 2025, then knocked out Nasrat Haqparast in the first round Oct. 25, 2025.

He submitted Jamie Mullarkey in the first round Jan. 31, 2026, and stopped Beneil Dariush by TKO in the first round May 2, 2026.

All five fights were at lightweight, and all five came in roughly 15 months. Salkilld meets Mateusz Gamrot in the main event Saturday at the UFC APEX.

News (#18)

Co-Main Lightweight · 3 rds

Diego Ferreira

Billy Quarantillo

Pick Diego Ferreira LOW

Diego Ferreira -160 · Billy Quarantillo +160

LOWDiego Ferreira — low-conviction lean at Lightweight.

FightIQ Newsroom · Fighter Bios

Diego Ferreira

10-7

Diego Ferreira debuted in the UFC on June 28, 2014, and carries a 10-7 promotional record over 17 fights into Saturday's card at the UFC APEX.

Ferreira lost to Saturday's headliner, Mateusz Gamrot, by second-round TKO on Dec. 18, 2021. He returned with two knockouts: Michael Johnson in the second round May 20, 2023, and Mateusz Rebecki in the third round May 11, 2024.

His last two have gone the other way. Grant Dawson beat him by unanimous decision Jan. 18, 2025, and Alexander Hernandez stopped him in the second round Sept. 13, 2025.

Each of those five bouts was contested at lightweight.

News (#18)

Billy Quarantillo

6-5

Billy Quarantillo is 6-5 in 11 UFC fights since debuting Dec. 7, 2019.

He stopped Alexander Hernandez in the second round Dec. 10, 2022, then was knocked out by Edson Barboza in the first round April 15, 2023. Quarantillo answered with a unanimous decision over Damon Jackson on Aug. 5, 2023.

He has lost his last two. Youssef Zalal submitted him in the second round March 23, 2024, and Cub Swanson stopped him in the third round Dec. 14, 2024.

All five of those bouts were at featherweight. The Swanson fight is his most recent appearance on record, leaving him out of the cage for roughly 20 months ahead of Saturday's card at the UFC APEX.

News (#18)

Main Card Featherweight · 3 rds

Darren Elkins

Yadier del Valle

Pick Yadier del Valle HIGH

Darren Elkins +641 · Yadier del Valle -641

HIGHYadier del Valle — HIGH-conviction pick at Featherweight.

FightIQ Newsroom · Fighter Bios

Darren Elkins

19-11

Darren Elkins made his UFC debut on March 21, 2010. He enters Saturday's card at the UFC APEX with a 19-11 record over 30 promotional fights.

His last five bouts, all at featherweight, produced three wins and two losses. Elkins beat Tristan Connelly by unanimous decision on April 30, 2022, then lost a unanimous decision to Jonathan Pearce on Dec. 3, 2022.

He submitted TJ Brown in the third round on Oct. 14, 2023, and beat Daniel Pineda by unanimous decision on Oct. 19, 2024.

Elkins last fought on April 12, 2025, when Julian Erosa stopped him by TKO in the first round. It was the only time he was finished in those five fights.

His return Saturday comes about 16 months later, the longest gap in that five-fight run.

News (#18)

Yadier del Valle

2-1

Yadier del Valle made his UFC debut on May 17, 2025, and is 2-1 in the promotion through three fights.

He opened with two first-round submissions. Del Valle finished Connor Matthews in the opening round on his debut, then submitted Isaac Dulgarian in the first round on Nov. 1, 2025.

That run ended on Feb. 21, 2026, when Jordan Leavitt took a unanimous decision over three rounds. It was the first time del Valle had been past the opening round in the UFC and his first defeat in the promotion.

All three bouts were contested at featherweight. Del Valle returns Saturday at the UFC APEX with a three-fight UFC sample: two finishes and one decision loss.

News (#18)

Main Card Women's Strawweight · 3 rds

Amanda Lemos

Alexia Thainara

Pick Alexia Thainara HIGH

Amanda Lemos +239 · Alexia Thainara -239

HIGHAlexia Thainara — HIGH-conviction pick at Women's Strawweight.

FightIQ Newsroom · Fighter Bios

Amanda Lemos

9-6

Amanda Lemos debuted in the UFC on July 16, 2017, and carries a 9-6 record over 15 promotional fights into Saturday's card.

She has gone 2-3 across her last five, all at women's strawweight. Lemos beat Mackenzie Dern by unanimous decision on Feb. 17, 2024, then lost by second-round submission to Virna Jandiroba on July 20, 2024.

A unanimous decision win over Iasmin Lucindo on March 8, 2025, was followed by unanimous decision losses to Tatiana Suarez on Sept. 13, 2025, and Gillian Robertson on March 14, 2026.

Both of those defeats went the full three rounds, as did the Dern and Lucindo wins. The Jandiroba fight is the only one of the five that ended early.

Lemos has spent nine years on the UFC roster.

News (#18)

Alexia Thainara

3-0

Alexia Thainara is 3-0 in the UFC since debuting on March 22, 2025.

She submitted Molly McCann in the first round on debut, then beat Loma Lookboonmee by unanimous decision on Sept. 27, 2025.

Her most recent fight was a unanimous decision win over Bruna Brasil on March 28, 2026, her second straight bout to go the full three rounds.

All three came at women's strawweight. Thainara has not lost in the promotion, and the two fights that reached the judges both went her way on every scorecard.

Saturday's bout at the UFC APEX is her fourth UFC appearance.

News (#18)

Main Card Welterweight · 3 rds

Billy Ray Goff

Ty Miller

Pick Ty Miller HIGH

Billy Ray Goff +365 · Ty Miller -365

HIGHTy Miller — HIGH-conviction pick at Welterweight.

FightIQ Newsroom · Fighter Bios

Billy Ray Goff

1-2

Billy Ray Goff is 1-2 in the UFC. He debuted on Aug. 26, 2023, and stopped Yusaku Kinoshita by TKO in the first round.

He has lost his two fights since. Trey Waters beat him by unanimous decision on May 11, 2024, and Ramiz Brahimaj submitted him in the first round on May 31, 2025.

All three bouts were at welterweight, and two of the three ended in the opening round.

Goff returns Saturday at the UFC APEX after about 14 months out, his longest gap between UFC appearances. Those three fights are his full UFC record to date.

News (#18)

Ty Miller

1-0

Ty Miller has one UFC fight on his record. He debuted on Jan. 24, 2026, and stopped Adam Fugitt by TKO in the first round at welterweight.

That result leaves him 1-0 in the promotion heading into Saturday's card at the UFC APEX.

Miller has not been past the first round in the UFC and has not had a fight scored by the judges. Our dataset lists no other UFC bouts for him before Aug. 8, 2026, so his promotional sample is a single first-round finish.

Saturday will be his second UFC appearance, about six and a half months after the first.

News (#18)

◆ Prelims

Prelims

Prelim Light Heavyweight · 3 rds

Bruno Lopes

Diyar Nurgozhay

Pick Diyar Nurgozhay LOW

Bruno Lopes +135 · Diyar Nurgozhay -135

LOWDiyar Nurgozhay — low-conviction lean at Light Heavyweight.

FightIQ Newsroom · Fighter Bios

Bruno Lopes

1-2

Bruno Lopes is 1-2 in the UFC going into Saturday's card at the UFC APEX.

The light heavyweight debuted Jan. 11, 2025, with a unanimous-decision win over Magomed Gadzhiyasulov.

He then lost to Dustin Jacoby by TKO in the first round May 31, 2025, and to Navajo Stirling by TKO in the second round March 28, 2026.

All three of Lopes' UFC fights have been at light heavyweight. His win went the full three rounds, and both losses ended by stoppage inside two rounds.

The Stirling bout was his most recent outing before this weekend, and it left him on a two-fight skid in the promotion.

News (#18)

Diyar Nurgozhay

1-2

Diyar Nurgozhay brings a 1-2 UFC record to Saturday's card at the UFC APEX.

The light heavyweight debuted March 15, 2025, and lost by submission in the second round to Brendson Ribeiro.

He lost again Aug. 23, 2025, submitted by Uran Satybaldiev in the first round.

Nurgozhay got his first UFC win March 7, 2026, taking a unanimous decision over Rafael Tobias across three rounds.

All three of his UFC appearances have been light heavyweight bouts. Both losses came by submission, and the win was his first fight in the promotion to reach the judges.

News (#18)

Prelim Heavyweight · 3 rds

Jose Montanha

Louie Sutherland

Pick Jose Montanha LOW

Jose Montanha +182 · Louie Sutherland -182

LOWJose Montanha — low-conviction lean at Heavyweight.

FightIQ Newsroom · Fighter Bios

Jose Montanha

0-0

Jose Montanha has no prior UFC fight on record in our dataset ahead of Saturday's card at the UFC APEX. He enters with no logged UFC record, debut date or previous opponents. Any earlier experience falls outside the UFC data we track.

News (#18)

Louie Sutherland

1-2

Louie Sutherland is 1-2 in the UFC ahead of Saturday's card at the UFC APEX.

The heavyweight debuted Oct. 25, 2025, and lost by submission in the first round to Valter Walker.

He lost again March 21, 2026, stopped by Brando Pericic by TKO in the first round.

Sutherland picked up his first UFC win May 2, 2026, taking a unanimous decision over Tai Tuivasa in a three-round fight.

All three of Sutherland's UFC bouts have been at heavyweight. Both of his losses ended in the first round, and the Tuivasa fight was the first of his UFC run to reach the scorecards.

News (#18)

Prelim Lightweight · 3 rds

Manoel Sousa

Richie Miranda

Pick Manoel Sousa MED

Manoel Sousa -277 · Richie Miranda +277

MEDManoel Sousa — medium-conviction pick at Lightweight.

FightIQ Newsroom · Fighter Bios

Manoel Sousa

1-0

Manoel Sousa arrives at UFC Vegas: Gamrot vs. Salkilld with a 1-0 UFC record.

He debuted March 14, 2026, and stopped Bolaji Oki by KO/TKO in the third round of a lightweight bout. That is the whole of his UFC file: one fight, one finish, no losses and no decisions.

One result leaves most of the questions open. The promotion has no tape of Sousa fighting from behind, and no second data point to show whether the March stoppage reflects a pattern or a favorable matchup.

Saturday at the UFC APEX is his second walk to the Octagon.

News (#18)

Richie Miranda

0-0

Richie Miranda enters UFC Vegas: Gamrot vs. Salkilld with no prior UFC fight on record in our dataset. Saturday's bout at the UFC APEX is his first entry in the promotion's fight records, which leaves no UFC tape and no promotional history to draw on.

News (#18)

Prelim Women's Flyweight · 3 rds

Juliana Miller

Ravena Oliveira

Pick Juliana Miller MED

Juliana Miller -277 · Ravena Oliveira +277

MEDJuliana Miller — medium-conviction pick at Women's Flyweight.

FightIQ Newsroom · Fighter Bios

Juliana Miller

2-3

Juliana Miller carries a 2-3 UFC record into Saturday's card at the UFC APEX. All five of her promotional bouts have come at women's flyweight.

She debuted Aug. 6, 2022, and stopped Brogan Walker by KO/TKO in the third round. Veronica Hardy then beat her by unanimous decision March 18, 2023, and Luana Santos stopped her by KO/TKO in the first round Aug. 12, 2023.

Miller returned May 3, 2025, and took a unanimous decision over Ivana Petrovic. Her most recent outing was a unanimous-decision loss to Carli Judice on Feb. 21, 2026.

Three of the five have gone to the scorecards, and Miller has split those 1-2. The two finishes on her UFC file break one each way, the Walker stoppage and the Santos defeat.

News (#18)

Ravena Oliveira

0-3

Ravena Oliveira has gone 0-3 since joining the UFC, and Saturday's card at the UFC APEX is her fourth appearance.

She debuted Oct. 14, 2023, and lost a unanimous decision to Tainara Lisboa in a women's bantamweight bout. Two years passed before her next fight. Stephanie Luciano submitted her in the third round Oct. 18, 2025, at women's strawweight, and Shanelle Dyer stopped her by KO/TKO in the second round March 21, 2026.

The three defeats arrived by three different routes: decision, submission and stoppage. The last two came at strawweight after the bantamweight debut, and Oliveira has yet to win inside the promotion.

News (#18)

Prelim Women's Strawweight · 3 rds

Carol Foro

Gigi Canuto

Pick Carol Foro MED

Carol Foro -223 · Gigi Canuto +223

MEDCarol Foro — medium-conviction pick at Women's Strawweight.

FightIQ Newsroom · Fighter Bios

Carol Foro

0-0

Carol Foro has no prior UFC fight on record in our dataset. Saturday at the UFC APEX is her first entry in the promotion's fight records, so nothing in her UFC file predates it.

News (#18)

Gigi Canuto

0-0

Gigi Canuto comes to the UFC APEX without a prior UFC bout on record in our dataset. Her UFC file begins with Saturday's fight, and no earlier promotional result exists to weigh.

News (#18)

Prelim Featherweight Bout · 3 rds

Miles Johns

Gianni Vazquez

FightIQ Newsroom · Fighter Bios

Miles Johns

6-5

Miles Johns is 6-5 in the UFC since his Sept. 14, 2019, debut. He has 12 UFC appearances on record, and the 6-5 mark accounts for 11 of them; the remaining bout is logged in our dataset as neither a win nor a loss.

Johns won twice in 2024, taking a unanimous decision from Cody Gibson on March 23 and another from Douglas Silva de Andrade on June 15. Both were bantamweight fights.

He has lost three in a row since. Felipe Lima beat him by unanimous decision in a featherweight bout Dec. 14, 2024. Jean Matsumoto took a split decision Aug. 9, 2025, back at bantamweight. Daniel Marcos submitted him in the second round Nov. 8, 2025.

Johns fights Saturday at the UFC APEX.

News (#18)

UFC FN · Gamrot vs Salkilld

Gamrot vs Salkilld

Main Card

Prelims

Honest framing