The same fights, but with alternate primes / dates / weight-class shifts. Each variant is a separate model run on the V14 ensemble — conversation pieces, not predictions.
The model picks Aljamain Sterling with a 54% probability based on a unanimous four-way ensemble. The model favours Sterling due to a higher Elo Rating Gap, a larger Experience Gap, and a superior Strength of Schedule. Additionally, the model identifies a positive Avg Fight Duration Gap for Sterling.
The model favours Aljamain Sterling based on a unanimous consensus across all four sub-models. This preference is driven by a significant Elo Rating Gap of +147 points and a higher Strength of Schedule. Additionally, the model identifies a Striking Index Gap of +13.34 in favor of Sterling.
The model picks Aljamain Sterling with a 54% probability based on a unanimous consensus from the four sub-models. The model favours Sterling due to his advantages in Elo Rating Gap, Strength of Schedule, and Experience Gap. Additionally, the model identifies a positive Avg Fight Duration Gap for Sterling.
The model picks Rafa Garcia with a 56% probability based on a unanimous consensus from the four sub-models. The model favours Garcia due to his advantages in Average Fight Duration Gap, Control Time Gap, and Output. Additionally, the model identifies a positive Striker vs Grappler Matchup edge for Garcia.
The model picks Rafa Garcia with a 56% probability based on a unanimous consensus from the four sub-models. The model favours Garcia due to his advantages in the Striking Index Gap, Control Time Gap, and the Striker vs Grappler Matchup. Additionally, the model identifies a positive edge for Garcia in Average Fight Duration Gap.